EARLY NATIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW:

NEXT UP FOR WALES

May 28, 2026

I wanted to take a look at the next opportunity Wales have to play in a major European tournament, after agonizingly missing out on the World Cup. To understand how we qualify for Euro 2028, we need to provide the necessary context for the Nations League and how they work together.

The way the Nations League feeds into Euro 2028 qualifying isn't always straightforward, so let's set the stage. Stick with me.

(Also, there have been changes announced (May 20) to the Nations League format post Euro 2028, as well as a change to how Wales can qualify for the next World Cup.)

But, for now, we’ll tackle how it stands today. Maybe dive deeper into the new systems later.

First, how do we qualify for Euro 2028?

We’ll start here first and then move on to the Nations League itself (which has already been drawn and will be played first).

The qualifying draw for Euro 2028 will take place on Sunday, December 6th, 2026, in Belfast. So we don't know the actual groups yet, but the qualification format consists of 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams competing against each other from March to November 2027.

Once the draw is settled, teams play each other home and away. So, in a 5-team group, you play 8 matches (4 opponents, twice each), and in a 4-team group, you play 6.

Direct Qualifiers: 12 group winners and the 8 best-ranked runners-up advance directly to the 24-team tournament.
Play-offs (March 2028): The remaining runners-up and high-ranked UEFA Nations League teams play off for the final spots.

There’s also a quick caveat to this with the ‘Euro 2028 Host Qualification Structure.’

All four host nations (England, Scotland, Wales, and the Republic of Ireland) will participate in the qualifying group stage.
Safety Net: If more than two hosts fail to qualify via the regular qualifying process, only the two best-ranked among them (not qualifying otherwise) will receive a host spot.

Okay, what other avenue do we have to qualify? That’s where the Nations League comes in with those playoffs we mentioned.

The Nations League:

Say you won your Nations League group but then failed to qualify through the Euro qualifying stage (didn't win your group, didn't finish as one of the 8 best runners-up), your Nations League performance earns you a play-off place as a second chance.

It's a backup for teams that perform well in the Nations League but struggle in qualifying.

Honestly, let’s hope for ‘easier’ Euro qualifying matchups, because our Nations League group is stacked.

Here’s who we got starting September 2026.

Group A 4

Portugal
Denmark
Norway
Wales

On paper, we’re outclassed. Will Ronaldo make another appearance at an international tournament? Haaland, c’mon, he’s a machine, I don’t need to dwell on him too much, and Denmark have a well-drilled group with players, most of whom are applying their trade in Europe’s top-5 leagues.

We’ll start with Portugal:

Portugal have won 3 major tournaments in recent years, starting with their first-ever major trophy at Euro 2016. (Still salty). Following this, they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019 and secured a second Nations League title in 2024/25. They’ve really been dominant.

UEFA European Championship: 2016
UEFA Nations League: 2018/19
UEFA Nations League: 2024/25

The squad's midfield depth with Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, and Bernardo Silva is arguably Portugal's greatest strength.

As holders of the trophy, they’re the favorites to top the group. The actual test will probably come in the knockouts, where they’ll likely meet winners or runners-up from A1 (France/Italy), A2 (Germany/Netherlands), or A3 (Spain/England).

The path to a 3rd Nations League title runs through the ‘big boys’ as it always does.

Norway:

Norway pose a threat, even if everything they do goes through Haaland. They face a difficult path to the quarter-finals, but finishing second to secure a knockout-round place is achievable. Some may say a more realistic target for them is just to avoid dropping out of League A (the same can be said about Wales), however, this team is capable of shocking the nations involved.

The gap between them and Denmark is smaller than we think, so it could be a real battle for 2nd.

If Haaland is firing on all cylinders, though, you never know. They can be competitive if their top players can get going. Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa, and Alexander Sørloth will have to step up and offer a lot in addition to the goals from up top.

Another name to keep an eye on is Oscar Bobb. He can be electric when he wants to be. Maybe even Jens Petter Hauge can replicate his Champions League form.

Denmark:

Morten Hjulmand, Rasmus Højlund, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, and the Danish legend Christian Eriksen make up a squad more than capable of hurting teams.

Denmark reached the Nations League quarter-finals for the first time in 2025, going out 5–3 on aggregate to fellow group members Portugal.

They’ll be competitive, but finishing above Portugal looks a tough thing to pull off. They’ll realistically be fighting for that second spot with Norway, but making it past the quarter-finals the ultimate goal.

Denmark have a small core of talented players that can be dangerous throughout this Nations League campaign and into the Euro 2028 cycle.

Wales:

Now, onto the good guys.

Harry Wilson has been a standout figure in the Premier League this season, hitting the back of the net 9 times for Fulham and had put them firmly in that European conversation for most of the campaign. For Wales, he’s had huge shoes to fill after the departure of Gareth Bale, and while no one will probably ever live up to the standard Bale set, Wilson has given us something to look forward to. The next Welsh wizard on the pitch.

He’s been the creative outlet, free-kick specialist, and the player opposition sides most need to contain. If Wilson stays fit and in form, we have a chance of nicking points off anyone.

Brennan Johnson moved to Crystal Palace from Spurs this year, and, at 24, he’s been asked to do a lot up front for club and country. I think the expectation of being the other primary attacking threat alongside Wilson for Wales may have become something of a distraction, as he’s really struggled for us as of late.

Most recently in our World Cup qualifiers.

His missed penalty against Bosnia will sting, but performances haven’t been where they need to be either. Though I expect him to return to camp for the Nations League, with plenty to prove and raring to go.

The rest of the squad features the familiar faces of Karl Darlow in goal, our defensive unit of Joe Rodon, Neco Williams, Ben Davies (when fit), Ethan Ampadu, and Dylan Lawlor (who performed really well against Bosnia). Daniel James, on the attack, has always been direct and full of pace.

No one can keep up with Dan James when he’s at full tilt, no one.

We have Kieffer Moore up front as well, who’s a threat whenever balls are played into him. At Wrexham, I think he’s been able to showcase his feet a bit more, but anything flighted into the box, he’s getting a head to it. When we need to play like that, he’s the one to aim at.

Sorba Thomas seems to come on and provide a spark, too, so keep an eye out for him down the wing.

He’s really emerged as a special talent. Double-digit goals and assists this season for Stoke in the Championship, and played just about every game for the Potters. He’s been a rare source of consistency and creativity.

Survival in league A is probably the target (as much as I want to go and win it).

Finishing last in the group would mean relegation back to League B, which is a significant setback for the Euro 2028 pathway. If the aim is just to stay up, be competitive, and use these 6 games against elite European competition as the ideal preparation for Euro 2028 qualifying, then I think we can all passively watch and hope for the best.

But I want more. I want to beat Norway, see a result against Denmark, and get a bit of revenge against Portugal.

For Welsh football, the only way to progress is to want to win every time we step out onto the pitch, and we expect nothing less.

An uphill task for sure, but that’s where we thrive. Ultimately, there are a few avenues to ensure Wales qualify for the Euros, so there’s no excuse not to be there come June 2028, where we’d open the tournament with a match at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. A fitting storyline to run with.

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We’ll round this out with a trip down memory lane. ↓